Development and validation of a nomogram model for predicting the risk of pre-hospital delay in patients with acute myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is a severe cardiovascular disease caused by the blockage of coronary arteries that leads to ischemic necrosis of the myocardium. Timely medical contact is critical for successful AMI treatment, and delays increase the risk of death for patients. Pre-hospital delay time (PDT) is a significant challenge for reducing treatment times, as identifying high-risk patients with AMI remains difficult. This study aims to construct a risk prediction model to identify high-risk patients and develop targeted strategies for effective and prompt care, ultimately reducing PDT and improving treatment outcomes. AIM: To construct a nomogram model for forecasting pre-hospital delay (PHD) likelihood in patients with AMI and to assess the precision of the nomogram model in predicting PHD risk. METHODS: A retrospective cohort design was employed to investigate predictive factors for PHD in patients with AMI diagnosed between January 2022 and September 2022. The study included 252 patients, with 180 randomly assigned to the development group and the remaining 72 to the validation group in a 7:3 ratio. Independent risk factors influencing PHD were identified in the development group, leading to the establishment of a nomogram model for predicting PHD in patients with AMI. The model's predictive performance was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic curve in both the development and validation groups. RESULTS: Independent risk factors for PHD in patients with AMI included living alone, hyperlipidemia, age, diabetes mellitus, and digestive system diseases (P < 0.05). A nomogram model incorporating these five predictors accurately predicted PHD occurrence. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis indicated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values of 0.787 (95% confidence interval: 0.716-0.858) and 0.770 (95% confidence interval: 0.660-0.879) in the development and validation groups, respectively, demonstrating the model's good discriminatory ability. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test revealed no statistically significant disparity between the anticipated and observed incidence of PHD in both development and validation cohorts (P > 0.05), indicating satisfactory model calibration. CONCLUSION: The nomogram model, developed with independent risk factors, accurately forecasts PHD likelihood in AMI individuals, enabling efficient identification of PHD risk in these patients.

Development and validation of a prediction model for hyperuricemia risk in hypertensive patients.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to create a predictive model for hyperuricemia (HUA) in patients diagnosed with hypertension and evaluate its predictive accuracy. METHODS: Employing a retrospective cohort design, this study investigated HUA incidence and clinical data among 228 patients with essential hypertension selected from the Department of Cardiology at a tertiary A-level hospital in Anhui Province, China, between January 2018 and June 2021. The patients were divided randomly into a training group (168 cases) and a validation group (60 cases) at a 7:3 ratio. The training group underwent univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses to identify risk factors for HUA. Additionally, an R software-generated nomogram model estimated HUA risk in hypertensive patients. The validation group assessed the nomogram model's discriminatory power and calibration using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. RESULTS: The study found a 29.39% prevalence of HUA among the 228 participants. Logistic regression analyses identified age, body mass index, and concomitant coronary heart disease as independent HUA risk factors (odds ratio [OR] > 1 and P < 0.05). Conversely, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol emerged as an independent protective factor against HUA in hypertensive patients (OR < 1 and P < 0.05). Using these factors, a nomogram model was constructed to assess HUA risk, with an AUC of 0.873 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.818-0.928) in the training group and 0.841 (95% CI: 0.735-0.946) in the validation group, indicating a strong discriminatory ability. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed no significant deviation between predicted and actual HUA frequency in both groups (χ2 = 5.980, 9.780, P = 0.649, 0.281), supporting the nomogram's reliability. CONCLUSION: The developed nomogram model, utilizing independent risk factors for HUA in hypertensive patients, exhibits strong discrimination and calibration. It holds promise as a valuable tool for cardiovascular professionals in clinical decision-making.

Establishment and validation of a heart failure risk prediction model for elderly patients after coronary rotational atherectomy based on machine learning.

Objective: To develop and validate a heart failure risk prediction model for elderly patients after coronary rotational atherectomy based on machine learning methods. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted to select 303 elderly patients with severe coronary calcification as the study subjects. According to the occurrence of postoperative heart failure, the study subjects were divided into the heart failure group (n = 53) and the non-heart failure group (n = 250). Retrospective collection of clinical data from the study subjects during hospitalization. After processing the missing values in the original data and addressing sample imbalance using Adaptive Synthetic Sampling (ADASYN) method, the final dataset consists of 502 samples: 250 negative samples (i.e., patients not suffering from heart failure) and 252 positive samples (i.e., patients with heart failure). According to a 7:3 ratio, the datasets of 502 patients were randomly divided into a training set (n = 351) and a validation set (n = 151). On the training set, logistic regression (LR), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), support vector machine (SVM), and lightweight gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) algorithms were used to construct heart failure risk prediction models; Evaluate model performance on the validation set by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, F1-score, and prediction accuracy. Result: A total of 17.49% of 303 patients occured postoperative heart failure. The AUC of LR, XGBoost, SVM, and LightGBM models in the training set were 0.872, 1.000, 0.699, and 1.000, respectively. After 10 fold cross validation, the AUC was 0.863, 0.972, 0.696, and 0.963 in the training set, respectively. Among them, XGBoost had the highest AUC and better predictive performance, while SVM models had the worst performance. The XGBoost model also showed good predictive performance in the validation set (AUC = 0.972, 95% CI [0.951-0.994]). The Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) method suggested that the six characteristic variables of blood cholesterol, serum creatinine, fasting blood glucose, age, triglyceride and NT-proBNP were important positive factors for the occurrence of heart failure, and LVEF was important negative factors for the occurrence of heart failure. Conclusion: The seven characteristic variables of blood cholesterol, blood creatinine, fasting blood glucose, NT-proBNP, age, triglyceride and LVEF are all important factors affecting the occurrence of heart failure. The prediction model of heart failure risk for elderly patients after CRA based on the XGBoost algorithm is superior to SVM, LightGBM and the traditional LR model. This model could be used to assist clinical decision-making and improve the adverse outcomes of patients after CRA.

Constructing a prognostic tool for predicting the risk of non-adherence to antiplatelet therapy in discharged patients with coronary heart disease: a retrospective cohort study.

Objective: To investigate the incidence and influencing factors affecting the non-adherence behavior of patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) to antiplatelet therapy after discharge and to construct a personalized predictive tool. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, 289 patients with CHD who were admitted to the Department of Cardiology of The First Affiliated Hospital of the University of Science and Technology of China between June 2021 and September 2021 were enrolled. The clinical data of all patients were retrospectively collected from the hospital information system, and patients were followed up for 1 year after discharge to evaluate their adherence level to antiplatelet therapy, analyze their present situation and influencing factors for post-discharge adherence to antiplatelet therapy, and construct a nomogram model to predict the risk of non-adherence. Results: Based on the adherence level to antiplatelet therapy within 1 year after discharge, the patients were divided into the adherence (n = 216) and non-adherence (n = 73) groups. Univariate analysis revealed statistically significant differences between the two groups in terms of variable distribution, including age, education level, medical payment method, number of combined risk factors, percutaneous coronary intervention, duration of antiplatelet medication, types of drugs taken at discharge, and CHD type (P < 0.05). Furthermore, multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that, except for the medical payment method, all the seven abovementioned variables were independent risk factors for non-adherence to antiplatelet therapy (P < 0.05). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve before and after the internal validation of the predictive tool based on the seven independent risk factors and the nomogram were 0.899 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.858-0.941) and 0.89 (95% CI: 0.847-0.933), respectively; this indicates that the tool has good discrimination ability. The calibration curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test revealed that the tool exhibited good calibration and prediction consistency (χ2 = 5.17, P = 0.739). Conclusion: In this retrospective cohort study, we investigated the incidence and influencing factors affecting the non-adherence behavior of patients with CHD after discharge to antiplatelet therapy. For this, we constructed a personalized predictive tool based on seven independent risk factors affecting non-adherence behavior. The predictive tool exhibited good discrimination ability, calibration, and clinical applicability. Overall, our constructed tool is useful for predicting the risk of non-adherence behavior to antiplatelet therapy in discharged patients with CHD and can be used in personalized intervention strategies to improve patient outcomes.

Study on the risk of coronary heart disease in middle-aged and young people based on machine learning methods: a retrospective cohort study.

Objective: To identify coronary heart disease risk factors in young and middle-aged persons and develop a tailored risk prediction model. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was used in this research. From January 2017 to January 2020, 553 patients in the Department of Cardiology at a tertiary hospital in Anhui Province were chosen as research subjects. The research subjects were separated into two groups based on the results of coronary angiography performed during hospitalization (n = 201) and non-coronary heart disease (n = 352). R software (R 3.6.1) was used to analyze the clinical data of the two groups. A logistic regression prediction model and three machine learning models, including BP neural network, Extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and random forest, were built, and the best prediction model was chosen based on the relevant parameters of the different machine learning models. Results: Univariate analysis identified a total of 24 indexes with statistically significant differences between coronary heart disease and non-coronary heart disease groups, which were incorporated in the logistic regression model and three machine learning models. The AUCs of the test set in the logistic regression prediction model, BP neural network model, random forest model, and XGBoost model were 0.829, 0.795, 0.928, and 0.940, respectively, and the F1 scores were 0.634, 0.606, 0.846, and 0.887, indicating that the XGBoost model's prediction value was the best. Conclusion: The XGBoost model, which is based on coronary heart disease risk factors in young and middle-aged people, has a high risk prediction efficiency for coronary heart disease in young and middle-aged people and can help clinical medical staff screen young and middle-aged people at high risk of coronary heart disease in clinical practice.

Effects of acceptance and commitment therapy on self-management skills and psychological resilience of young and middle-aged patients underwent percutaneous transluminal coronary intervention for primary myocardial infarction: a pilot study.

BACKGROUND: Acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT) is an intervention focusing on altering how patients relate to their thoughts. This study aimed to investigate the effects of ACT on self-management ability and psychological resilience of young and middle-aged patients undergoing percutaneous transluminal coronary intervention (PCI) for primary myocardial infarction (MI). METHODS: This pilot study included 98 young and middle-aged patients who underwent PCI for primary MI using a convenient sampling method. The patients were divided into a control group and an ACT group using the random number table method. The patients in the control group received routine nursing, while those in the ACT group received routine nursing combined with ACT. RESULTS: The psychological resilience and self-management ability scores were significantly higher in the ACT group than in the control group 3 months after the intervention (P < 0.001 and < 0.05, respectively). In addition, compared to the baseline scores of psychological resilience and self-management ability, these scores were significantly higher in the ACT group at 3 months post-intervention (P < 0.001 and < 0.05, respectively). CONCLUSION: ACT could enhance the psychological resilience and self-efficacy and improve the self-management ability of young and middle-aged patients who underwent PCI for primary MI. TRIAL REGISTRATION: China Clinical Trial Center ChiCTR2000029775 . Registered on 13 February 2020. Registration title:Study on the popularization and application of rotational atherectomy for the treatment of severely calcified coronary lesions.